Thinking about coincidence

John Allen Paulos, professor of mathematics at Temple University, has a fine essay in The New York Times on the difference between storytelling and statistics. Here's an exerpt.

Coincidences loom large in narratives, where they too frequently are invested with a significance that they don’t warrant probabilistically. The birthday paradox, small world links between people, psychics’ vaguely correct pronouncements, the sports pundit Paul the Octopus, and the various bible codes are all examples. In fact, if one considers any sufficiently large data set, such meaningless coincidences will naturally arise: the best predictor of the value of the S&P 500 stock index in the early 1990s was butter production in Bangladesh.

The most amazing coincidence of all would be the complete absence of all coincidences.

One way to take all the fun out of watching television is to start noticing the coincidences the writers use to make story happen in an hour.